I always recall we talked about "premies" as people who had received knowledge, and "active premies" as those who at least practiced, showed up for satsang once in a while and might go to the occasional event/festival.

I think even EV says that the number of active premies in the USA is under 3,000 and that only about half that number give money on any kind of regular basis.  Judging from events that have occurred, the number willing to travel any considerable distance to go to an event is also dwindling.  Not surprised, because the watered-down, contentless presentations are not that attractive to people. 

Actually, if Rawat went back to wearing Krishna crowns and giving darshan at every event, like he did in the 70s and early 80s, I bet more people would show up (more of the die-hard, "God in a bod" people).

So, considering that up to 100,000 people received knowledge in the USA since M arrived, a 3% retention rate is pretty pathetic.

And I have also met quite a number of people who received knowledge, especially in the early 70s, who left just about immediately.

But I think you are right.  I don't think the attrition rate has really changed over the years.  It's always been very high, except that now that so few people receive knowledge in any given year (like something over 200 in the USA in 2003 according to the cult's own figures), there aren't that many to fall away, either.